The Cone of Uncertainty in Estimating

I attended a seminar by Craig Larman – author of Agile and Iterative Development: A Manager’ guide. Though I couldn’t attend the complete seminar, there were a couple of good takeaways. The primary one being the “Cone of uncertainty”. Craig talked about this and correlated this to real life showing how we can use this to bid on Fixed bid engagements. The cone in itself is nothing new and has been talked about by all the estimating guru’ in the past. But, when the rubber hits the road, we forget the basics and tend to under estimate and under-bid the projects. And as always, the reason can be traced to one simple fact: “Where in the lifecycle did you estimate?” I wonder why this simple logic does not get into our heads and become the de-facto practice?


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